I'm tired of making all these predictions that come true in my media and culture classes, but then didn't formally write down to prove I said them. Now, that's gonna change. Sometimes, I reach a bit, but it's fun to also imagine. I got the plots of the new Star Wars episodes right, as well as predicted that UCC would fail out the gate, and that iPod Nanos would sell like hotcakes back when Koreans were really not buying iPods.
Let's get right to the points, though. Here goes:
The iPhone will gain 40%+ of the Korean smart phone marketshare in 2010.
Seems like a no-brainer, but remember all these nationalistic Koreans were naming reason after reason the iPhone can't/won't succeed in Korea. And espousing the same old "consumer exceptionalism" of the Korean market using the false assumption that consumers in Korea somehow operate under different rules here, especially as they relate to nationalism. To the contrary, I think they don't -- Korea just often has special circumstances, such as a protected cellphone market and the history of already having had a robust MP3 player market when the rest of the world had nearly none, which is when the iPod was introduced. The iPhone is not only better than its copiers, but also a better deal. Which has already forced companies such as Samsung to slash its prices and start doing silly dances to compete. Ah, the fresh air of a more open market. And speaking of Apple...
After the impending announcement of the iTablet or whatever it will be called, Steve Jobs will announce his retirement from Apple.
Just makes sense, doesn't it? It's the last major paradigm-shifting product, in the last remaining unconquered medium for Apple. Apple won't have conquered print by 2010 alone, but it's the beginning of the end of the Tree Holocaust. Apple will have revolutionized the worlds of the computer, music, television, film, and even audio content (audio books and podcasts), as well as the telephone. The only remaining area is print. The Kindle really made the big crack; the iTablet or whatever will have us bringing print with us in major ways that we didn't before. And with that, Steve Jobs will make take his much-needed rest.
Facebook is gonna "tip" this year in Korea, starting now, really cruising by the summer.
My "domestic" Korean friends have started adding Facebook, which is the last frontier here in Korea. Of course, many foreign-educated or experienced Koreans have Facebook accounts, which they generally don't use regularly, but now "domestic" Koreans have started popping up across my Add list. These are the people who have never been or rarely go overseas, effectively speak no English, and often have nationalistic attachments to things such as Naver or Cyworld. But enough international Koreans, along with younger college students, both international and domestic have started using Facebook -- and with the iPhone taking off, the apps that are well-integrated with that masterful machine (Facebook and Twitter) are going to drive their use even more.
Twitter, already tipping, is going to become all the more popular on mobile apps, under Korean versions of the program.
Again, the "YouTube Korea" effect will ensure Twitter's success. Remember when I was talking up YouTube Korea as succeeding when I participated in its launch party? Oh, so many scoffed, while people talked up the Korean streaming services' better image quality. Umm, where are they now? Even WITH -- and partly BECAUSE of trouble created by the government's "real name system" requirement, YouTube is the way people post things to the Internet here. To paraphrase Bill Clinton, "It's the vast user base, content, and reachable audience, stupid." And there it is -- the ever-present problem with Korean Internet companies: they think too small, rely too much on a captive Korean market. Why can't a Korean company launch a worldwide-level site/biz idea? One COULD -- but remember, this is an culture so conservative and incapable of thinking outside of the box that it take weeks or even months for spellcheck corrections to reach the English versions of corporate web sites here.
Does Korea have the raw capability to put together a world-class site, in terms of technical skills, raw English power, and infrastructure? Sure. Does it have the organizational, creative, or think-ahead abilities to do so? Not at all. In terms of Internet ideas, of creative content, of cultural content -- expect 2010 to continue the ongoing pattern of Korean companies copying or adapting to innovations coming from the outside, while contributing nearly nothing of their own.
